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The IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast provides forward-looking insights into global air travel trends, helping aviation businesses anticipate future travel demand and make data-driven decisions.
In a world shaped by shifting geopolitics, economic uncertainty, technological advancements, and environmental challenges, understanding potential impacts on travel demand is crucial. The forecast offers various scenarios that take into account factors like global trade, demographic trends, sustainable travel practices, and evolving passenger behaviors. This enables aviation businesses to better forecast passenger traffic, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities in an ever-changing market.
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What is the IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast?
The IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast is a crucial tool for aviation businesses and stakeholders, offering detailed projections of air travel demand for nearly 4,000 country pairs. Developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, the forecast combines macroeconomic data and aviation trends to provide reliable, actionable insights.
This analysis helps organizations stay ahead of shifts in travel demand driven by changes in demographics, trade flows, economic conditions, and sustainability efforts. The forecast is updated quarterly, offering baseline projections as well as alternative scenarios to prepare users for market volatility, emerging travel behaviors, and geopolitical developments.
Download a free sample of the IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast
Preview key travel insights with a sample of our 20-Year Passenger Forecast. See how the data and analysis can support your long-term planning decisions.
What data does the 20-Year Passenger Forecast provide?
The forecast offers a comprehensive view of global and regional air travel trends, based on two types of forecasts:
- Long-term forecasts: Focused on macroeconomic drivers like GDP growth, demographic changes, and the role of international trade in shaping air travel demand.
- Short-term forecasts: Incorporating key indicators such as consumer confidence, exchange rates, and unemployment rates, with alternative scenarios to account for uncertainties.
Key features include:
- Granular data: Available by region and country pairs.
- Four quarterly updates: Ensuring forecasts reflect the latest market developments and regulatory changes.
- Flexible access options: Depending on the format you choose, you can access just the data, detailed analysis, or both data and analysis to suit your specific needs.
- Level of granularity: Data is available at both annual and quarterly levels, providing insights that match your planning and forecasting requirements.
The IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast equips users with the insights needed to anticipate travel demand shifts and respond effectively to an ever-evolving aviation landscape.
Flexible access options to meet your business needs
The IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast is available in a range of formats, tailored to different business needs. Whether you require continuously updated forecasts or one-time data snapshots, we offer solutions to suit your strategy.
- Web tool access: A 12-month subscription to an interactive online database that provides the 20-Year Passenger Forecast with quarterly updates. Available for global, regional, or country-level forecasts, this option ensures you have the most up-to-date insights throughout the year as market conditions evolve.
- Data access: One-time data extractions in Excel format at global, regional, or country levels. These snapshots of the latest available forecasts allow you to integrate the data into your own models, but do not include automatic updates.
- Reports: Comprehensive, one-off reports providing expert analysis and insights at both global and country levels. These reports are static and reflect market conditions at the time of purchase, without ongoing updates.
Each format is designed to provide you with the insights you need, whether you prefer continuous updates or a one-time view of air passenger projections. Contact us to learn more about the best option for your business and receive a detailed breakdown of available formats.
How Boston Consulting Group (BCG) leverages the IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast
Discover how Boston Consulting Group (BCG) uses the IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast to deliver strategic guidance across the aviation, travel, and tourism sectors. Learn how BCG leverages IATA’s deep expertise to navigate industry shifts and help clients make informed decisions.
“The longer range that IATA provides, both historically and forecasted, helps us help our clients make more informed decisions, because we can see the cycles and trends more clearly.”
– Sandra Guggenheim, Sector Manager, Boston Consulting Group
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Frequently Asked Questions
What makes the IATA 20-Year Passenger Forecast unique?
The forecast combines long-term structural insights with short-term market trends, offering a dual approach developed in collaboration with Oxford Economics. It also includes alternative scenarios, helping businesses navigate potential uncertainties and disruptions in the aviation industry.
How frequently is the forecast updated?
The forecast is updated four times per year, reflecting the latest developments in the economy, travel demand, and market conditions, ensuring businesses stay informed of emerging trends.
What regions and routes does the forecast cover?
The forecast covers nearly 4,000 country pairs, encompassing both international and domestic routes. Users can also access regional, country-level, and route-specific insights through the product's interactive database.
How does the forecast account for unexpected disruptions or changes in travel behavior?
In addition to baseline forecasts, the product includes alternative scenarios to reflect different market developments—such as economic downturns, geopolitical shifts, or sustainability initiatives—enabling users to prepare for a range of outcomes.
What types of businesses benefit from the forecast?
The forecast supports a wide range of industries, including:
- Airlines (network planning, revenue management).
- Airports (capacity management, operations).
- Investors (risk assessment, investment strategies).
- Governments (economic planning, infrastructure development).
- Consultants (market analysis, strategy development).
What are the key drivers of future air travel demand?
Key drivers include:
- Macroeconomic trends: GDP per capita and trade intensity.
- Demographics: Population changes, including age distribution.
- Travel costs: Airfares and exchange rates.
- Consumer behavior: Confidence levels and spending patterns.
- Sustainability efforts: Influence of environmental policies on travel.
What output formats are available for the data?
Users can access the forecast through:
- Online database/web tool with customized reports and interactive tables.
- Excel or CSV data exports for historical and future trends.
- Global, regional, or country-specific reports tailored to specific needs.
How far back does the historical data go?
The forecast includes historical data going back to 2006, offering users insights into long-term trends and comparisons to support strategic planning.
How does the forecast support sustainability initiatives?
The forecast accounts for the impact of environmental policies and sustainable travel behaviors, helping businesses align with future trends and prepare for changes in consumer expectations regarding carbon footprints and travel choices